Om Shanti,
I’m keeping this one short. My friend Doctor H of the House of Wisdom Substack sent me an award winning research article done by Chris Carolan on the lunar calendar patterns underlying autumn panics. I’m really surprised I havn’t come across his work before, and I’ll be diving into his books soon. All credit goes to the original author Chris Carolan, and to Doctor H for forwarding me the article. This article will be free and not paywalled.
By the way, you should all be subscribed to House of Wisdom, Doctor H’s publication, in my view the most underrated astrology substack right now:
“Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon” was written by Christopher Carolan in 1998. It won the Charles H. Dow Award, which is about as establishment as technical analysis gets. And it makes a claim that should not be true, yet appears to be.
You can download the paper and read it for yourself here:
https://spiralcalendar.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/autumn_panics.pdf
Here’s the (very simplified) idea. Carolan borrows an annual lunar calendar from the Babylonians. If there is to be an autumn panic (all other factors considered) then the panic occurs within the same day or two of the lunar calendar. You count the first new moon after the spring equinox as month one, and carry on from there.
Measured this way, the lows of 1929, 1987 and 1997 all land on the 27th and 28th days of the seventh lunar month - what he calls the dark days. Black Tuesday, Black Monday and the Hang Seng's worst session of 1997 occur on the same lunar dates. All three fell within a single day of each other on the calendar year. The panic low occurs very close to the eighth new moon after the spring equinox Then he goes back further - 1907, 1873, 1857 - and it holds, give or take a month in the years the lunar calendar ran short.
I’ve been vocal on October for a little while, it’s certainly one of the most challenging months of the year. All other astrology considered, when running the theory for this year, Carolan's model flags two specific windows - around 7-8 October, and, as the stronger base case, around 5-6 November. Strikingly, these are both within the Mercury and Venus retrogrades.
As always, time will tell.
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Om Shanti,
Rowan
Rowan’s Financial Astrology
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The author is not a financial advisor. This astrological analysis is for educational purposes only.
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There is a seasonal tendency for a low as well in October. The greatest crashes may occur when Mars is in Scorpio Helio or at some planetary midpoints. The question remains whether there are other conditiond at the same time as well.
It is perfectly normal to be right about the cycle but wrong about the timing.