A Transparent Review of My Incorrect Forecasts
The calls I got wrong, what I learned, and how I’m refining my methods going forward.
If my logged accuracy sits around 60 to 65% since launching this Substack in the summer of 2025, that implies something simple:
A meaningful percentage of my forecasts do not fully play out.
That’s not always comfortable to acknowledge. But it’s the truth.
This post is a transparent review of the calls that didn’t land, and what they taught me about refining my forecasting process. Very few forecasters publicly review their incorrect calls. I believe accountability is essential if this work is going to mature over time.
Q4 2025 Alt Season & Bitcoin All-Time High
I got this wrong. Like many others, I expected a strong Q4 alt season and a Bitcoin all-time high before the end of 2025. It didn’t materialize. Instead, we saw a broad market wipeout in October and November.
In hindsight, this was a classic lesson in mass market psychology, one I didn’t weigh heavily enough in my analysis. The consensus was overwhelming. Across crypto Twitter, YouTube, research threads, and trading groups, the expectation of a year-end rally was nearly universal. That should have raised a flag.
When consensus becomes deafening, it stops being confirmation and starts becoming risk. Mass investor psychology can generate momentum, and sometimes that momentum is tradable. But it also creates fragility. When positioning becomes crowded, even small shifts in liquidity can unwind it violently.
The key lesson for me:
Strong consensus is not validation, it is a variable.
Going forward, I need to treat extreme agreement itself as a signal. Not to reflexively oppose it, but to examine it with more scrutiny than usual.
In an era of algorithm-driven sentiment and social media-based trading, independent thinking is harder than ever. The noise is constant. The feedback loops are immediate.
That makes disciplined detachment even more important!
HBAR — Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 Surge
I projected a price surge for HBAR across Q4 2025 and into Q1 2026.
Instead, it was pulled down alongside the broader crypto collapse.
Fundamentally, I remain bullish on HBAR. In my view, its hashgraph consensus mechanism is technologically superior to the majority of projects in the space, and I continue to see long-term potential there.
But markets do not reward fundamentals in isolation. They reward liquidity.
And during liquidity contractions, even strong projects decline.
The lesson here is straightforward:
Macro conditions matter more than individual project strength.
Going forward, my crypto forecasts need to incorporate two additional layers:
Technical structure of the broader macro environment, what are the Nasdaq and S&P 500 actually signaling?
The mundane (macro) astrology of the month in question - because even strong individual transits can struggle during heavily bearish collective astrological periods, like February 2026.
An individual chart may show potential. But if the tide is going out, even the strongest boats drift lower.
Dogecoin | A Clear Miss
Dogecoin was a consistent call for me through Q4 2025 and January 2026. I expected a surge in line with Bitcoin, citing the Jupiter return effect on the astrology chart, which has historically shown strong correlation with price spikes in other assets, as I explain in this article.
It didn’t happen. At least, not yet.
The astrology was compelling, the chart correlations looked strong, but the price simply didn’t respond. Dogecoin followed Bitcoin implicitly, yet it seems to have solid support at $0.10.
This sparked an important question: do smaller-cap assets respond less to astrological timing?
XRP (market cap $88B) has shown strong correlation with its chart in past calls. Dogecoin ($16B at the time) did not.
This miss led to a vital hypothesis: the 'Mass Consciousness Threshold.' I am now investigating whether an asset requires a specific market cap (likely $50B+) to aggregate enough collective 'Karma' or life force to respond to planetary transits.
The broader lesson: 90% of altcoins are reflexive extensions of Bitcoin, which, along with Ethereum, increasingly mirrors macro liquidity conditions. These conditions can, in turn, correlate strongly with macro-astrology.
Going forward, my crypto analysis needs additional layers:
Mundane astrology of the month
Macro liquidity cycles and technical analysis
Technical structure in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Individual asset charts
This is the evolution of my methodology, building on what I’ve done so far while integrating broader macro and structural factors.
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance Token
After the alliance token tanked, I immediately revisited the chart I had been using.
The separation of the entities within the alliance did not make sense relative to the original chart. So I researched further and identified a more plausible foundational chart.
With that second chart, the separation event aligned far more cleanly.
Yes, hindsight is 20/20. But refining the base data is part of the craft. This is research in motion, not dogma. You can see my justification for the rectified chart in this article.
Other Projects: Propy, The Graph, Cronos
Projects I’ve been tracking, Propy, The Graph, Cronos, also struggled in Q4 2025. I made unique, time-specific predictions of positive news, and for Propy, those predictions actually materialized. Yet the price action barely reflected it.
I still find their technology and use cases compelling, but crypto market volatility has drained liquidity. That could be bad news, or an excellent buying opportunity, depending on your perspective.
The broader lesson: strong fundamentals don’t protect an asset from macro liquidity contractions. Again, this ties into taking the macro-astrology much more seriously. I flagged February 2026 as early as November 2025 because I saw it was a gnarly month astrologically, which led to tech stocks selling off, crypto furthering its destruction and the rise of Gold and Silver. As the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Silver — The 31st January Crash
I remain bullish on silver for 2026 for a large number of reasons outlined in my article.
However, I did not anticipate the sharp January 31st correction. It was a move that defied conventional technical and sentiment analysis, which is why I am deep-diving into the specific Aquarius 'Air-Sign' clusters that preceded it.
Since then, I’ve been studying the chart of that day and its relationship to the silver chart I use. I’m not willing to dismiss it as a random event. A move of that magnitude must have an astrological correlation. Right now, I’m investigating patterns that combine technical exhaustion with heavy air-sign activity, particularly Aquarius, which may correspond to corrective phases. Once I’m more confident, I’ll put a prediction into practice and publish the findings.
It’s one thing to make firm predictions and get them right, but markets evolve, and so must we. That’s the catch-22 of being in the predictions and market space. The research never ends.
The Bigger Picture
Beyond the specific calls, I’m broadly satisfied with the correlations and research directions of my predictions so far. I’ve done well on Gold, the Euro, Hyperliquid, Telcoin, Bitcoin, META, and many others.
This is an independent research operation. While I don’t have a Wall Street floor behind me, I have the agility to pivot and the transparency to show my work in real-time. My methodology is a living system - it compounds in accuracy as the data set grows.
That’s not an excuse, it’s context. The goal isn’t perfection. The goal is improvement.
I see this publication as an evolving research journal. Accuracy should rise over time, not because I pretend to be infallible, but because I refine my methods.
The value of a single well-timed entry, like the META or Gold calls, far outweighs the cost of membership.
Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic. Anyone claiming 80% is selling a miracle. I’m selling a process.
Youth & Time Horizon
Many financial astrologers didn’t start this young.
Early adoption of this craft allows for an unbiased perspective, free from the rigid dogmas of the past. It also brings something far more valuable: time. Time to iterate. Time to improve. Time to compound skill.
Financial astrology is absolutely audacious, controversial and mis-understood.
But if there’s truth to it, it could be the most profitable skill you could ever learn. And I want you to learn it alongside me.
Why I’m Writing This
We’re entering a new era.
Anonymous finance accounts — no face, no accountability, no audit trail — dominate crypto and social media. Retail participation is higher than ever. Confidence is cheap. I want to be accountable. That means logging calls. Reviewing misses. Refining publicly. This is not about ego.
It’s about building a long-term, durable skill. I explain this on my prediction zone page.
I’m logging as many calls as I can on my Prediction Zone website, which members have access to. I will update and upgrade the site over time, and it remains unique in the astrology/predictions/finance space: a place to track all calls in one place. Most forecasters don’t do this, because truth is hard on the ego.
I also consider my market forecasting work a natural extension of my personal financial astrology services. I’ve received very positive reviews for those sessions, and the guidance and insights from them often prove invaluable. Analytical Vedic astrology is a passion and a lifelong study. You can see the various shining testimonials on my store.
Om Shanti,
Rowan Hogg
Financial Astrologer
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The author is not a financial advisor. This astrological analysis is for educational purposes only.
Cryptocurrency investments are highly risky and speculative. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
Astrology is an indicative model and does not claim causative effect. Users bear full responsibility for decisions based on this content, the author disclaims all liability. Astrological insights are interpretive with no assured outcomes.
I really like the fact that you , or any astrologer , can admit they made inaccurate forecast or forecasts. I have been studying this field for probably 2 decades, and I can honestly say, I have been humbled many times. But on my mistakes, many times I try to see where I went wrong, so I can improve the next time around. It’s a never ending, process. On wrong forecasts, I would first ask the question,
“What is the random statistical chance that the event I am predicting happens?” Specific time and place, or price level. Do your predictions beat random chance? Astrology beats random chance. If I say , a person is going to get into a car accident this weekend, and it doesn’t happen, does that mean astrology is false? The odds of a person getting into an accident on a specific weekend, is probably less then 1%. If you make this prediction and get it right only 1/10 times, you’re still beating random chance. Thats the bottom line. And it’s this point, that most people miss. Keep up the great work Rowan. You are a very good astrologer, and with your attitude, will be forever refining and improving.
Refreshing my Brother. My opinion just went much higher of you. 🙌🙏