Great conversation, it flowed nicely, and the mutual curiosity and respect was very visible (hence it ‘flows’).
Also valuable points about 2026-28, which I share entirely (real estate, crypto, etc., will probably bottom in Q1 2028).
One note, if I may: using a long term Elliott Wave analysis, I was able to ‘predict’ that gold & silver would top either end of 2025 / early this year, and warned my subscribers about it (they’re extremely grateful - and completely mystified, as every man and his dog forecasted an endless rise moon-wards).
My suggestion is to always bear in mind that complex systems have their own ‘life’, hence the idea (common assumption) to repeat narratives about correlations is basically wrong. Correlations only apply, when there’s a congruence in the cycles.
So, to conclude, silver (especially), but likely also gold will likely not see new ATH’s for years (just as they topped in 2011, despite the eurozone crisis getting more desperate at precisely that time). Whether the monetary system collapses, inflation goes berserk, war escalates, etc, will not have any meaningful impact; rather, the embedded lifespan (cycle) of the commodity itself will hold the key to its behaviour.
Great conversation, it flowed nicely, and the mutual curiosity and respect was very visible (hence it ‘flows’).
Also valuable points about 2026-28, which I share entirely (real estate, crypto, etc., will probably bottom in Q1 2028).
One note, if I may: using a long term Elliott Wave analysis, I was able to ‘predict’ that gold & silver would top either end of 2025 / early this year, and warned my subscribers about it (they’re extremely grateful - and completely mystified, as every man and his dog forecasted an endless rise moon-wards).
My suggestion is to always bear in mind that complex systems have their own ‘life’, hence the idea (common assumption) to repeat narratives about correlations is basically wrong. Correlations only apply, when there’s a congruence in the cycles.
So, to conclude, silver (especially), but likely also gold will likely not see new ATH’s for years (just as they topped in 2011, despite the eurozone crisis getting more desperate at precisely that time). Whether the monetary system collapses, inflation goes berserk, war escalates, etc, will not have any meaningful impact; rather, the embedded lifespan (cycle) of the commodity itself will hold the key to its behaviour.
Awesome insights Kaspar thank you!